Detroit as climate haven
Detroit is experiencing the effects of climate change while simultaneously being positioned as a potential refuge for those displaced by increasingly severe weather events elsewhere. The city faces challenges including rising temperatures, increased precipitation, and the threat of flooding, but its relatively affordable land, freshwater resources, and existing infrastructure are attracting attention as climate-related migration increases. [1]
History
Detroit’s industrial past has shaped its current vulnerability and potential for adaptation to climate change. The city’s growth was heavily reliant on manufacturing, leading to significant urban development and alterations to the natural landscape. Since 1950, Detroit’s population has declined, though this decline has slowed in recent years, coinciding with changes in land use. Between 1990 and 2000, development in the Southeast Michigan Council of Governments (SEMCOG) region outpaced population growth threefold. [2] This pattern of development has implications for the city’s ability to manage stormwater runoff and mitigate the urban heat island effect.
More recently, Detroit has begun to grapple with the impacts of a changing climate through planning and adaptation efforts. The need for a climate action plan has been underscored by research from organizations like GLISA (Great Lakes Integrated Sciences and Assessments), which highlights the scientific basis for addressing climate change in the region. [3] The city’s history of industrial activity and subsequent decline has left behind vacant land, which presents both challenges and opportunities for climate resilience initiatives, such as urban forestry projects and green infrastructure development.
Geography
Detroit’s geographic location and features play a crucial role in its climate vulnerabilities and potential as a climate haven. Situated on the Detroit River, which connects Lake Huron and Lake Erie, the city is susceptible to fluctuating lake levels and increased risk of flooding. In July 2020, the Detroit River overflowed, overwhelming existing barricades and demonstrating the potential for significant damage from extreme precipitation events. [4] The city encompasses approximately 89,000 acres, with roughly 22,000 acres committed to urban forest and 24.3% canopy coverage.
Detroit’s higher latitude, compared to many areas facing severe climate impacts, is also a factor in its potential to attract climate migrants. The city’s investment in infrastructure, while aging in some areas, provides a foundation for supporting a growing population. The presence of the Great Lakes offers a significant freshwater resource, which will become increasingly valuable as other regions experience water scarcity due to climate change. However, the city’s aging infrastructure is vulnerable to the increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, requiring substantial investment in upgrades and resilience measures.
Climate Impacts
Detroit has been warming at a rate of approximately 0.4℉ per decade since 1960, and projections indicate continued temperature increases in all seasons. [5] Data from ClimateCheck indicates a significant increase in the number of extremely hot days. In a typical year around 1990, Detroit residents experienced about 7 days with temperatures exceeding 91.3ºF. By 2050, this number is projected to rise substantially. [6] These rising temperatures pose risks to public health, particularly for vulnerable populations, and exacerbate the urban heat island effect.
Beyond temperature increases, Detroit is also facing increased precipitation and a higher risk of flooding. The city’s combined sewer system is particularly vulnerable to overflows during heavy rainfall events, leading to water contamination and infrastructure damage. Changes in climate are also altering the suitable habitat for tree species within the Detroit region, necessitating adaptation strategies for the urban forest. The Detroit Urban Forest Vulnerability Assessment and Synthesis provides a detailed examination of these changes and potential responses. [7]
Detroit as a Potential Climate Haven
Detroit’s combination of affordability, freshwater access, and existing infrastructure is attracting attention as a potential destination for “climate refugees” – individuals and families displaced by climate-related disasters in other parts of the country. [8] The city’s relatively low cost of living, compared to many coastal cities facing sea-level rise, is a significant draw. The availability of vacant land also presents opportunities for redevelopment and the creation of climate-resilient housing.
However, Detroit’s ability to effectively serve as a climate haven depends on addressing existing challenges and investing in infrastructure improvements. The city’s aging water and sewer systems require upgrades to handle increased precipitation and prevent overflows. Affordable housing options need to be expanded to accommodate a potential influx of new residents. Furthermore, equitable distribution of resources and opportunities will be crucial to ensure that the benefits of climate migration are shared by all Detroiters, and do not exacerbate existing inequalities.